barbecue grill machine Don't Get Conned: Price Vs. Value

by:Longzhao BBQ     2019-10-15
barbecue grill machine Don\'t Get Conned: Price Vs. Value
Peter Lynch is a well-known fund manager, mainly due to the successful management of the record Fidelity Magellan Fund, providing a combined average return of more than 29% over ten years (19771990) (the largest investor: Peter Lynch ).Lynch's signature-style logo helps create this success, including investing in something that is easy to observe ("investing in something you know "), use tools such as his now famous "incoming line."Some of Lynch's most successful investments are growth investments, and long term papers on the company seem to be growth narratives;So I'm going to start an analysis of Conn.(Nasdaq: Kang en) as I imagined, if Peter Lynch analyzed the company, he might see it.From there, the analysis will be expanded to Z-using Edward Altman-Scoring indicators that make certain indicators and benchmarks obvious while describing the deterioration and overvaluation of the company.After moving to another office in Phoenix, Arizona, I only recently learned about Kang en.There happens to be a Conn location on the way to and from the office, so I will drive at least twice a day, most of the week.I just noticed the store by the way and didn't think much, my initial conclusion was that the store had to close because it didn't seem to have a lot of cars every day in its parking lot.One day, as I was driving past, I noticed that there was a "rent" banner from a real estate company on Kang en's shop.See two plastic a-a surprise of courseThe frame sign on the sidewalk tells passers-by that 'Yes!They were approved for financing and invited to enter the store.It is worth noting that this store is located in the busy shopping center, Ross (Nasdaq: ROST), Costco (NASDAQ: COST) and fry (NYSE: grocery stores always seem to have a steady stream of people coming in and out of their stores.After a few weeks of observation, I felt the need to investigate the inventory as Peter Lynch had imagined, and visited the store.I will discuss finance later but will now share the story of my visit.In order to be as objective as possible (even after seeing the company's sluggish financial situation) and give the company the benefit of doubt, I walked in at 5: 30 p.m. on Thursday, the most lively time in the entire shopping center.The store looks big from the outside, and the interior is equally spacious, filled with inventory under bright lights and red signs.Sofa and table on the left, refrigerator and built-in-The gas stove unit on the right, the electronics at the back, and a separate grill that doesn't look right, right at the door.After a rough sweep and noticing all the inventory, I realized I was the only customer in the store.Of course, there are employees there too, but I haven't seen them yet.I think the grill may be in front because of the discount.Compared to the same product on Amazon, I checked the price.Com (Nasdaq: AMZN), the price is the same.This is a neutral, I think.to-The positive finding is that Kang en can especially compete with this product.A few minutes later, a gentleman in a red shirt with his name embroidered on it approached me.He was a very friendly man who introduced himself in his own name and shook hands firmly.He took me to the electronics department, which is mainly a large high-end TV.We talked for a while and I found it to be the third day he worked for the company.He concluded to me that if I were a cash buyer, the competition for Conn would not be the most intense depending on the price.He reiterated their price matching plan.Advertising, many customer reviews seem to indicate that it is difficult for the company to comply with this) and delivery services, but he admits that the store is mainly sold to subprime mortgage companiesThe credit crowd, which does not necessarily compete through the price tag of many products, is sufficient to effectively draw the following conclusions:Personnel investigation.I know a high percentage of Conn's customers use in-Housing Financing (accounting for more than 70% of the total transaction volume), but has an understanding of whether ordinary (credit score) shoppers make sense when purchasing discretion or household appliances.What makes me wonder is that I chose high.Terminal products in the store.Not only TV, but also refrigerator.In the gas stove.I was thinking when I was in the store, but still can't seem to understand why consumers buy premium products here;I can understand the $450 stove.Oven set but $1500 for cooking range?It doesn't look like a cash product.Consumers will look for it.As for the refrigerator, some of the refrigerators in the store cost less than $400, but it also has the following featuresAdvanced equipment loaded is close to $3000.What customer are you looking for here?Is it subprime, in-Overspending home finance customers, or are there cash buyers who don't know that the same product might have a better deal elsewhere?If there is a retail store with poor reputation and poor evaluation, I haven't seen it yet.It is our understanding that a small percentage of any company's public complaints may be defamatory, wrong or otherwise unnecessary, and that the size of the sample certainly indicates, as the standard of the company, there seems to be unethical business practices.Yelp collects and displays consumers-Generate comments on its website yelp.Com, by location.At different locations, Kang averaged 2/5 stars on Yelp.I encourage longs, shorts and interested people to look up their nearest store location and read reviews to learn about the general negative experiences that many customers seem to have with this company.On customer review platforms including Consumer Affairs (1/5 stars, based on 1060 reviews), Google reviews and its map app Ripoff Report, the same seems to be the case, some people have worked hard to make YouTube videos explaining that they claim Kang en has hurt them in some way.The common theme of consumer reviews is a phrase that advises other customers to avoid retailers and "not to be deceived ".The growth rate of the opening of Kang en's new store has been slowing down (currently 115 ).Total sales have declined over the past yearover-Year (1613mm/1597mm Yuan ,-1%), quarter-over-Quarter (433mm/356mm Yuan ,-17.8%) and the same period-over-Year (389mm/356mm Yuan ,-8.6%).Same store sales fell by 15.As of 2%/17, y/y for the quarter was 4/30.The Conn reported that EPS was negative for 4 of the last 5 quarters, while the average credit rating of retailer customers has been declining (as of 588/17, 4/30) and 60-Plus, the daily default has been increasing (up 80 basis points 1/31/17-1/31/16 and 120 bps 4/30/17-4/30/16 (9.8% as at 4/30/17 ).Regarding the deterioration of the average consumer credit rating, the increase in arrears and long-term losses, the company responded by borrowing from accounts receivable.In the most recent transaction, the cost of borrowing $457 from accounts receivable of $559 was 6mm2%.Considering that the TTM Return of the company's investment capital (ROIC) is about 1.5% and weightedThe average cost of capital (WACC) is 8.25%, this raises the question of whether the gap can be reversed or whether clearing companies are more cautious.Although revenue growth has been on the rise for the past five years (15.Compound growth rate of 9%Line growth did not translate into EPS growth in the same time frame.Conn eps diluted YChartsIn's (TTM) data, a retail environment where investors seem to be very scared that Amazon will eat the world, and surprisingly, kang en's share price has risen more than 190% in the past 12 months.Consider its peers: rentA-Center (Nasdaq: RCII), basically equaled TTM, Aaron (NYSE: AAN) up to about 82% TTM, Sears (Nasdaq: SHLD) more than 42% shorter time to market, Los Angeles, bass and elsewhere (Nasdaq: BBBY) also fell nearly 40%Z-The boy (NYSE Code: LZB) fell about 8%, and Best Buy (NYSE Code: BBY) rose 40%.To the devil advocate, noting that shares of Aaron and Best Buy, two of Kang's peers, have risen sharply, one might say, their appreciation is based on investors' assessment of online competition, revenue growth, and the isolation of what Conn cannot always claim to have --profits.It is wise not to be fooled by (and Chase) rising stock prices as the company and its growth story are about to break down.Peter Lynch will carry a chart with him when managing Fidelity Magellan Fund in order to find the company and its price appreciation relative to income.The idea is that companies with revenues growing faster than their respective share prices will be candidates for further investigation and will be seen as investing in the fund.According to the chart above, we see a decline in revenue since the beginning of 2014, and at the end of the blue income line, the decline in income is negative.The company's situation is not an investment growth story, unless it allows new stores to meaningfully increase revenue, increase sales in current stores, and generate returns that are higher than the cost of capital.In addition to the growth drama, Lynch will also look for asset drama;The company's current trading premium is at its book value and, as we know, the assets on its books are not particularly productive.I have to imagine that Peter Lynch will not see the company as a candidate for investment.The metrics in YChartsThe's picture above are designed to quickly illustrate the quality of the company (ROIC, ROA, ROE) as it becomes more and more expensive (EV/EBIT) it has been deteriorating.Edward Altman, a professor at New York University, developed a program called Z-Predict the score of bankruptcy and be quite successful.Business Insider says Altman is the authority of bankruptcy theory."Z> 2.99 is "safe" area 1.81 < Z < 2.99 is z
Custom message
Chat Online 编辑模式下无法使用
Chat Online inputting...