best liquid propane gas grills The Fundamental Tool That Major Investment Firms Don't Even Have To Value A Green Energy Asset
by:Longzhao BBQ
2020-02-12
After Donald Trump's surprise victory, investors sold off many of the shares in the green energy sector.At the same time, they bought coal stocks and thought they would enjoy Trump's long term rebound.My idea is that Trump is pro.coal and pro-Oil and may revoke laws that are friendly to solar, wind and geothermal energy.My position on this is clear: the best green energy stocks will perform very well during Trump's presidency.The reality is that solar, wind and geothermal energy are now economically and competitively compared to natural gas and coal.In addition, the cost of producing green energy will continue to decline.I was as bullish on green energy as before Trump won.I believe that the ultimate tool for investing in this era is Katusa's green energy equivalent (GBOE ).Below, I describe how it works ...... I'm going to show how it reveals something incredible ...... Why do we use oil equivalent barrels when you start to learn how to analyze oil and gas securities, you come across something called "oil equivalent barrels."This is a common term in the industry ...... It is also a key tool for assessing oil and gas operations.This is because we can find different forms of fossil fuels when we drill for oil and gas.You can find the crude oil we use to make gasoline and diesel.You can find the natural gas we use to heat the home and power the plant.You can also find deposits rich in hydrocarbons called "natural gas liquids "."You may be familiar with a liquid like propane.Common fuel for gas grills.All these fossil fuels are valuable.But they're all different.They have different refining requirements.They have different shipping requirements.They have different end uses.Different market prices.A separate hydrocarbon deposit can contain a variety of such fuels.Oil and gas companies can have a wide range of assets on their balance sheets."Oil equivalent barrels" (or "BOE") we created metric so that we can compare the value of oil and sediment to each other ...... So that we can compare the value of oil companies with each other.BOE is an energy unit equivalent to the energy released by burning a barrel of crude oil or 42 gallons.By combining the value of the Bank of England with various reserves, we can understand the value of an energy company.In other words, when evaluating oil and gas companies, BOE is as close as possible to the "apple-to-apple" comparison.While BOE is a useful tool, it is important to understand its limitations.In the oil industry, the production of an oil well is measured by how many barrels of oil it produces every day.Every well produces oil at a certain speed;Oil producers are evaluated based on the total amount of oil produced by all wells on average one day.It is still important to consider some other factors, such as the grade of oil, but overall, bopd is a reliable standard for comparison in the oil sector.This reliability begins to disappear when natural gas enters the picture.Gas volume is measured in cubic feet rather than barrels, and the energy contained in a certain volume of gas is significantly different from that in the same volume of oil.But oil and gas companies need a way to describe their daily production.The concept of oil equivalent was born.As mentioned earlier, BOE is an energy unit defined as the energy released when a barrel of crude oil is burned.Since oil of different grades burns at different rates, the value is an approximation set to 5.8x106 BTU or 6.12x109 joules.The BoE concept allows us to combine different forms of fuel reserves and productivity in a standardized way.Using the BOE concept, a barrel of oil is equivalent to 5,800 cubic feet of natural gas because the energy generated by both is roughly the same when burning.Before the shale revolution, oil was usually six times the price of natural gas.If we evaluate the Company based on the energy contained in the company's reserves, the concept would be great, but we don't do it anymore (fracking changes this )-We care how much money they can make from these reserves.This does not depend on the control of energy, but on the market price of oil and gas, which are very different.A barrel of oil is equivalent to 5,800 cubic feet of natural gas.Historically, this means that oil trading is around 5.8 times the price of natural gas.Therefore, 1 barrel of oil is equivalent to 5 barrels in both energy and price.Equivalent to 8 times a barrel of oil.Please feel free to skip math as all I show is evidence to explain the numbers.I mean: use the oil price of $45 per barrel and the gas price of $2.24 cubic feet per thousand cubic feet, let's calculate the "value" of a Bank of England with gas prices ".Today, the Bank of England is priced at $12.99, so the price of BOE is not like the actual oil.Now, let's calculate the "value" of natural gas if we price it as oil, because the two should be equal.After all, not so equivalent!This barrel of oil is actually worth 3.46 times more than the "equivalent bucket" of natural gas.I will now explain why this is so important and why I am boring you through some math.Despite such a big difference, analysts often see the Bank of England's production and reserves as the same value for all oil.As a result, the gas BOEs gave 3.46 times the valuation of oil and gas companies, the value on the balance sheet, is acceptable according to today's accounting practice.So we have to be careful with the Bank of England data.The BOE concept is useful because it allows us to compare the energy production and potential of companies that produce two different fuels, but we should not use BOE data financially to evaluate the company.Despite the limitations of the Bank of England system, there is no doubt that this is the main parameter used by analysts and investors to compare energy companies.When using BOE, everyone in the resource industry stops using fossil fuels.I think, why use BoE only on oil and gas?Why not use it to evaluate and compare any and all energy companies?I'm talking about solar, wind, geothermal and hydro.If we want investors to start seriously considering green energy producers as an energy investment option, we must be able to compare green energy producers with oil and gas companies at Apple --to-apples basis.After all, energy is energy.It will either have your light on or it will not.It will either drive your car away or not.It's either worth it or not.Renewable energy is often negatively affected by investors.But hydropower, solar and wind projects are great investments.In the past five years, the cost of wind and solar energy has dropped a lot, and in many countries they are as cheap as fossil fuels.That's why I created something called "green bucket equivalent" or GBOE.Katusa's GBOE WorksGBOE is actually a BOE indicator for renewable energy sources such as geothermal, solar, wind and hydro.It allows me to take any solar power plant, wind power plant or geothermal power plant and incorporate it into the terms that I can use to value assets.I have taught a very smart, very wealthy energy entrepreneur how to do math behind GBOE.He was floored.He thinks no one will understand.I think it's okay.My GBOE equation has become a huge advantage for me as an investor.I can use it to accurately evaluate any green energy asset.I can use it to see what other investors don't see.The output and reserves of green energy are calculated in megawatts.From an official point of view, the device is a year of megawatt, like kWh, a rate: the number of megawatt grades produced annually.Since megawatt hours are an energy unit, GBOEs are energy-based, we just need to do a little unit conversion to convert megawatt into energy that we like to call Green Stone oil barrels.For example, we have a geothermal power plant.The production of geothermal energy is carried out by sinking the well underground, allowing the steam to rise to the surface, and using the steam to rotate the turbine.We have to assume that our geothermal power plants operate at 100% capacity, 365 days a year, 24 hours a day.We can then use the megawatt year (remember, this is the way to measure the power) and convert it to kWh.This is math for math lovers (others can skip ).The megawatt year of our green electricity is now 8.76 million kWh (kWh ).Now we use the defined ratio to convert kilowatt hours to megajoules: now we can convert to green BOEs using Definition 6 of BOE.12 x103 MJ.After all the cleaning is completed, the conversion is carried out: now we know that the green energy of 1 MW produced in more than a year is equivalent to producing 5,154 barrels of oil per year or 14 barrels of oil per day.Compare green energy assets in the United States: In the long run, use our mathematical method to convert green megawatts into oil equivalent to barrels per day with a green energy model.Let's use our green BOEs concept to compare the full potential of green energy production and oil well production.The rate of oil wells falling.This means that the initial production of the well will certainly not be the same in 6 months.Production of unconventional wells decreased significantly."Decline" is a huge problem in the energy industry, because oil and natural gas wells usually produce a large amount of production after being mined and fractured, but over time, production will decrease a lot.When assessing oil and gas assets, a reduction must be considered.Conventional oil and gas wells fell by an average of 14% per year.The annual decline in unconventional wells was as high as 75%, and the average decline in unconventional wells generally accepted was about 35% (which is optimistic ).This means that the well needs to further increase the oil recovery rate, or refraction of the well, otherwise the well will dry up.In order to maintain production levels, oil and gas companies must constantly build new wells.On the other hand, green energy sources such as geothermal wells are down about 2% per year, and solar and wind fields are not down.For example, hundreds of years after the geothermal well has been mined, it will still produce about 35% of the electricity that began to be used in the first year --This is a serious long term.term asset.So, in the geothermal world, new wells are not just replacing the production that is drying up;They added new, long ones.Regular production.The same is true for wind and solar farms (or fields)If we compare Apple to Apple, we should say wind or solar fields like the oil fields we say ).Let's analyze some data about the overall potential.Don't worry about all the equations below if you don't like calculusSkip them and read the text below to conclude.I have included calculus for all my crocodile mathematicians!To simulate the output of the geothermal wells, we use the harmonic descent rate.In the equation below, P represents the oil well productivity, represents the initial geothermal well productivity, and Di represents the constant harmonic descent rate.We took three realistic drop rates and simulated 100-The annual output of geothermal wells is 175 MW, or 901,950 gBOE per year.If we want to do the same thing for wind or solar power plants, just replace the number of MW.This is a key part of Katusa's green oil equivalent production.We need to match Apple's production to Apple's.To do this, we have to introduce some calculus.To calculate the cumulative production for the first T1 year, we used a point: the key question is: What would a comparable well look like?The question we have to ask ourselves is, "if the well is going to produce the same BOEs cumulative quantity for most of its time, then what initial productivity does it needShorter life span?"To calculate, we need to model the production of the well.This is what the following equation does, as the initial well productivity and exponential rate of decline, we set it to 14% due to the average conventional well rate of decline.Again, in order to calculate the cumulative production in the previous T2 years, we used a point: Remember, we tried to figure out how much oil a well originally needed to spray, in order to produce the same number of BOEs as geothermal wells (or any solar or wind farms) over their lifetime, it can be produced over a longer lifetime.These life cycles vary, so we chose three representative values for each well.For oil wells in oil fields, we have studied the life span of 10, 15 and 20 years.We chose the geothermal wells for 20, 50 and 100.Now, we set the cumulative yield equation equal to each other and insert a reduction rate (1.Harmonic geothermal is down 75% and exponential oil is down 14%) and runs through our well life (T1 = 20, 50 and 100, T2 = 10, 15, and 20 ).The initial productivity required for the well to match the BOEs geothermal well, at regular 10-The oil well produces the same energy as 49 a year.The 5 MW geothermal wells started production in the first 20 years and must produce more than 2,200 barrels per day.North America doesn't even have regular wells close to that number.To produce such a quantity, more than a dozen conventional wells are needed.In practice, however, there is no need to cut off geothermal wells, solar fields or wind farms after 20 years;If we want to go from the traditional 10-As we expect, the oil field of one year will start with a geothermal well field of more than 100 years and it has to produce 7,500 barrels of oil per day!It's often easier to understand these things graphically.The following figure shows 49.The harmonic attenuation rate of 5 MW geothermal wells is 1.75%, with 10-The annual oil well index fell 14%.The stability and life of geothermal power generation are very obvious.Please note that the geothermal well is at 100-year mark.Investors began to seriously consider green energy production during Trump's presidency. investors, fund managers and Trump himself needed to be able to compare the power of green energy with barrels of oil or natural gas wells.Now, thanks to Katusa calculator class, they can put together oil, gas and green energy companies, and we can compare production, reserves, and finally prove what we have said for a while: green energy companies are undervalued in the energy sector.Even if Trump is president, clean energy will be an important part of our future.Oil and gas producers will soon realize that the best way to eliminate carbon emissions is to produce green energy.I believe that in the next ten years, we will seeFirst-line and large oil and gas companies will begin to integrate and acquire green energy producers in North America.But until then, we need investors to realize that green energy is economic in the current energy matrix.The math I speak is completely correct.Since BOE (equivalent to oil barrels) also allows the production of green energy from the solar, wind, geothermal fields, natural gas is allowed to be included in the math on the financial books.I'm surprised no one has done so yet, but I'm sure the people at Goldman will read the report and repackage it into their own concept by integrating the underrated green energy industry, earn billions of dollars.They can apply the concept of GBOEs (green oil equivalent barrels) to allow bankers to accept GBOEs on their balance sheets when they are in BOEs.I hope they will.I have run all the data on the best and most underrated green energy producers in North America.Once the news comes out, the buyer will pay my subscribers and I will pay a premium for our shares.Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any of the stocks mentioned and no plans to start any positions in the next 72 hours.This article was written by myself and expressed my views.I was not compensated.I have no business relationship with any stock company mentioned in this article.
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