Chipotle: 3 More Reasons You Should Have Shorted Ahead Of Earnings - cheap gas grills

by:Longzhao BBQ     2020-05-06
Chipotle: 3 More Reasons You Should Have Shorted Ahead Of Earnings  -  cheap gas grills
The uniqueness of the Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) is that for some reason it seems to break the traditional rules of restaurant stocks.The bad weather is actually helpful.Cheap gasoline has no effect on it.The new restaurant has no honeymoon period, which makes the headlines the same --The store sales figures are ridiculously high and unsustainable.After the earnings report, the biggest headline factor that led to the decline in CMG may be disappointing --The number of stores sold is 10.Compared to 11 4%.Expected to be 4%.The first excuse in CEO Steve Ayers's opening remarks on the conference call was that I had to call him about it.A year-The previous weather was definitely more "bad" than this year, and Wells had previously played down the negative effects of the situation.For example, he said in early 2014 that similarly, Chief Financial Officer Jack Haidong said a year ago that it sounds like CMG has a history of rapidly resuming sales from bad weather, not to mention that the comparable period is worse than this year, so it seems to me that there are two ways to blame the weather on the weakness that seems strange that sales are comparable this year.Second, simply put, many investors are attracted to restaurant stocks due to falling oil and gas prices.However, according to consecutive data from Hartung last quarter, CMG never expected a drop in pump prices to have much impact.He said that the last and least important thing is the same misleading --store sales.I have previously discussed this in a CMG article entitled "need a reason to shorten Chipotle?Try to be jealous and misleadingStore sales statistics.In short, this problem is different from most chain restaurants, and with the opening of new units, chain restaurants tend to have honeymoon periods, and new CMG units tend to perform poorly.The result is that these units "speed up" exaggerate the same-While average sales are arguably more important-The number of units is often far less impressive.Unless the average CMG growth is more significant, these newer units will show an exaggerated effect on the whole.Over time, there will be fewer and fewer sales in stores.In fact, the management of CMG even warned in the conference call that, so far, April is only at a high level --The percentage of numbers increased compared to 10.At £ 4% this quarter, the company became more difficult on June and 5.Even the disappointing 10.First quarter 4%.1% of them were due to the price increase and the remaining 4.Part 3% is due to the high inspection product mix (part alcohol ).Traffic is not a huge gain.As a company, there is certainly nothing terrible this quarter.According to the 2015 report, it is estimated that as a stock with a P/E ratio of 40 p, I am comfortable holding my short position and continue to feel comfortable.Usually 40 P/Es reserved for hyper-Growth stocks in the restaurant industry, I think CMG has far exceeded the high growth stage.This is only emphasized in the report.Disclosure: The author is short CMG.The author wrote this article himself and expressed his views.The author was not compensated (except for Seeking Alpha ).The author has no business relationship with any company mentioned in this article.
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