how to clean cast iron William Gumede: Whoever cleans up the ANC won’t survive it

Professor William goumede said that the future of the country may be decided in the coming months, but the future of the ANC has been determined during Jacob Zuma's presidency.Several threats were pending at the December ANC election conference.How will this affect its results?There is a good chance that the meeting will break down, or that the result will be challenged in court, as happened in the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu provinces --Natal.Before the meeting, the ANC had broken its own rules.According to the Constitution, the provinces must hold an appropriate meeting three months before the National Conference.Now that the court has expelled the current leader of KZN, it means that any member of the ANC can now question the outcome of the meeting during or after the meeting and make arguments that the meeting was not properly composed.So from the ANC's point of view, everyone thinks that the new leadership can solve the problem, but we may not have the new leadership.Supporters of Cyril ramafusa, such as the Communist Party and union members, have said that they think he has overwhelming support, so if he doesn't get the job, it's because of some sort of corruption.They will then consider independent conduct and participate in the 2019 elections, respectively.So there was already a threat at the meeting.The second threat is Zuma's.People asked why, the NEC meeting one by one, voted for no confidence and he survived?Because Zuma threatened them.He told them that if you kick me out, I will go and form my own party and we will see who will vote for you.There is no doubt that the ANC has enough support on the ground without Zuma to let him leave?Zuma's departure from the ANC is a real threat because the ANC constituency has changed politically.The middle class has left the ANC and is unlikely to return.They went to DA, some went to EFF, etc.Another real constituency of the ANC is young black youth.They also left and joined the EFF.What is left?It belongs to the working class of the Union's blue-collar workers.When Cosatu split and Vavi started Saftu, they split again.The people who stayed in Cosatu were not sure about Zuma either.If Dlamini-Zuma was chosen as the agent of Zuma and they left.Now, whenever it comes to voting, Zuma will tell his NEC, who left?Rural voters are still there and he got them.Urban voters may never return to the ANC.If Zuma is gone and he takes rural voters, what is left of the ANC?So inadvertently, everything he has done to destroy the party is in his own hands?Yes, this is only evidence of cunning and cynical politicians.It is clear that this shows that he is not interested in the unity of the ANC, but is interested in himself.preservation.But this is the nature of man, for Remember that in the course of his ascent he stepped on the hind legs of others who could not wait for the day he left office to chase him.Many influential people in the ANC want to see him go to jail.What will be the last two years of his presidency for him?Ideal for him.Zuma won, and he sat still.He left in early 2019, during which they closed all the gaps and appointed like-minded people.What happened to the ANC?This is tragedy.Every scandal related to Zuma has cost the ANC more voters.I don't think it will get more than 50% of the vote in 2019.Even if you look at the ANC's own internal investigation, there are two situations.The first problem is that the ANC's approval rating is below 50%, but there are still more than 45% of the ANC's wins, but smaller opposition parties are needed.This is the scene of Ramaphosa.This means that even if ramafusa wins, Zuma will do a lot of damage, and he will almost give the ANC a majority.The second case is Denny-Zuma won, and the ANC's approval rating dropped to 40% or 45%, and then a larger opposition party was needed to govern.How real is the possibility of the second situation?It’s very real.Society has changed, and more specifically, it has changed in black society and in non-national constituencies.People are really struggling.In the face of economic difficulties, the black middle class, which is the cornerstone of the ANC, is in trouble.The status of the black middle class has always been fragile because most people start from scratch.1994. in order to be successful, liabilities were required.Then the country failed, which was not expected.The middle class really felt the failure of the country in their pockets.You can't send your child to a public school because the education is so poor that you go to a private school, which is the cost you didn't calculate.You will also have to pay for private hospitals and have additional security at home.These are all the extra costs that the black middle class didn't think of when it started.So the group is really nervous and has left the ANC because if they were previously ideologically driven, they don't have more options just because they are trying to survive.Ideology is luxury.They only need a party that can fix the country and reduce costs.What about the workers?The black working class has been a staunch supporter of the ANC.If you work in this state, you will get a good little social contract, and your work is for life.You are part of the ANC, part of the Union, and you can continue.But if you are a black working class in the private sector, you are really in trouble once the economy has grown to the present.Where are you going to find a job?You can't compete without skills.The union has moved from being primarily based on mining/manufacturing to a public service sector.The other members of Cosatu are therefore the public service union.People in manufacturing and mining have lost their jobs because of poor economic performance.It is impossible for these people to vote for the ANC.So the last person the ANC can have is a young black man.Most young black people come from public schools and are unskilled in the economy and are out of work right away.You're angry, resentful, radical.In the past, the ANC had won these votes, but EFF had already won them.This is a bleak picture for the ANC?No matter who wins in December, they lose.Most of the ANC have gone.They will preside over the death of the ANC.If it was Denny-Zuma's death will be faster.If it is Ramaphosa, it will last longer, but it will still happen.Is there any way for people like Ramaphosa to turn things around?The difficulty is that Zuma allows his allies, such as the prime minister and the local city boss, to do whatever they want as long as they support him and do not plunder what he wants to plunder.Send a reporter to Limpopo or Mpumalanga in northwest or free state, they went bankrupt.The ANC has been run by these mafia for ten years.If ramafusa became president, they would not turn over and lose all their assets.He will try to be pragmatic and play a long game to keep them going as always when he pursues low hanging fruit, but keep the system intact, so in the public opinion, he seems to be cleaning.In the first year, in any case, there was nothing he could do in the provinces because of the upcoming national elections.As former president Kgalema Mothlante said in an interview earlier, if you really want to clean the ANC, you have to throw it away and cut everything off and there will be on the floorBasically, people who clean up the ANC will not survive.They will have to pay close attention to the award and say history will remember them, but they will not survive the award.-William goumede is an associate professor at the School of Governance at Westland University and executive chairman of Democratic engineering.