tabletop gas grill for sale At Home - Still Room To Run

by:Longzhao BBQ     2020-02-20
tabletop gas grill for sale At Home - Still Room To Run
On June, 2017, I wrote at home for the first time.I think this retailer is "my best stock plan for this year ".Article in this link.There are still a few good quarters under their belt, and the stock is now a little more than 40% higher than my $21 cost base.62.Too fast?Recently, at the international investment conference in Orlando, the UK issued guidance at home.I will review some of the slides in the presentation and make some comments and comments.For those who are unfamiliar at home, the slides will provide a good overview of their business.Home is a "big box" retail chain specializing in Home decoration products based in Plano, Texas.The stores of professional retailers each carry over 50,000 unique items in a wide range of product categories (E.G.g., furniture;garden;home textiles;housewares;patio;rugs;seasonal decor;tabletop decor;wall decor).As you can see, its large 110,000-square-foot store provides ample space for its 50,000 SKU inventory.It is worth noting that the average growth rate of its sales composite is 21%.Since the listing, its sales of comparison stores (store sales for more than one year) have increased.This is a good sign that for me this is the first indicator that its business philosophy works well.Its long-The long-term target for net income growth of 25% is currently 44%.It's easy to grow when you're young.This will begin to stabilize over time, but for now high growth rates should continue.At present, the company operates in a decentralized market with no dominant position.When home decoration items are "touched" and felt, they are better sold.You want to see the actual color of the carpet, or the size and firmness of the bedside table.Before buying, you want to sit on the sofa and imagine being at home.This is a huge and growing category, and no competitor stands out as a runaway leader.It mentions low prices in this slide.Is it not true that Amazon has the lowest price?Not necessarily.Amazon is currently selling 0.536 billion products.There are so many products, many of which are sold by third-party merchants, Amazon is often not the lowest.At home, contracts are also signed with manufacturers to design products for them.More than 70% of the products are exclusive.This is a big advantage if you can get the right look, feel and style that the customer is asking.The slide below shows some price comparisons for other retailers.In terms of sales growth, the chart above shows a compelling story.It is worth noting that the flooring and decor (FND) is the 2nd largest retail stock I hold.It's good to have the fastest horse.You can read my article about the floor and decorationPay for the growth here.One of the fast conceptsMore and more retailers like to talk about "Blank Space ".How many other geographic areas are available for expansion?600 locations have been identified in the country.With 149 stores, the company has maintained steady growth and expansion for many years.Stores grow by 18% a year and it will take nearly a decade to fill the gap.I believe it will identify further markets and areas of expansion by then.The point is that for many years to come, I have no concerns about market saturation.Anyone who keeps an eye on any information I have on the retailer knows that I am a huge fan of high comparable store sales.If the sales target for each store is falling, I refuse to own retail stock no matter the valuationWatch your bed for Bath and Beyond (BBBY ).Competition from low to negative means that you are old-fashioned, run poorly, or cut away by your competitors.The average comp growth rate in China for 15 consecutive quarters was 5.6%.These are good numbers for sustainable development.This is also a concept I mentioned in other articles (maybe a bit too much )-the retail 3.0 model.At the beginning, we had retailers selling products from stores.the 1.As I said.Then there is the internet revolution and the mantra of "selling everything online!" -the 2.0's.They cry and don't need a nasty overhead storefront.But in the process, some categories just sell better in the real world.Home seems to be one of them.But that doesn't mean you're back to 1.0 days.Even if you are not selling on the Internet, you must use the digital experience to drive your store traffic and attract your customers.Understand the concept in China and do a very good job (retail 3.0).I have a more detailed article about retail.0 here.All products and prices online-But they don't sell online!An interesting key difference seems to serve it well.By attracting customers in the store, it has a great opportunity to increase the size of the basket and buy items impulsively.This is a very expensive one.Things like to do (cost ).When you increase your email address, you will be marketing to the core customers that were most likely to buy from you in the past.This is a powerful tool.You have created your own market share.You can use data analytics to make up sales, down sales, and contacts to customers in a personalized and customized way.Fees for email campaigns?-Almost nothing.Track customer behavior in real time through loyalty and credit card plans.This is equivalent to repositioning the activity while browsing the website online.If they know you just bought a grill, why not try to sell a nice grill cover?All of this drives the customer experience.This is a powerful way to use the Internet.None of this is sold online.Since the IPO, China has done a good job in implementation.Because the essence of Wall Street ispromise, over-deliver (U.P.O.D.) -My estimate of its sales growth and net income growth is slightly higher.I will look for more than 6% company with sales growth + 26%.I also expect net income, adjusted in form, to grow by more than 40%.Anything below this is a bit disappointing.The company handled the modest debt of $0.308 billion fairly well.Total liquidity, cash plus availability under its revolving credit line ("ABL Loan") is $97 million.For FY18, the company now expects sales to be between $0.939 billion and $0.944 billion, and EPS guidelines (GAP) to be US dollars.66 to $.68.In the next quarter, 2018 in the fourth quarter-The company released this guide.It is worth noting that the tax rate.37 is still being modeled.The efficiency was 5%.With the introduction of the new tax bill, this will improve significantly.The new effective tax rate will be decided by the accountant, but there will be a big increase even at 21%.10 or more EPS numbers.The market always looks forward, not backward.For the next two years, let's see where our valuation indicators will lead us.As the company's fiscal 2018 is coming to an end, we will look forward to fiscal 2019 and 2020.In addition to data per share, the data is millions.Several assumptionsI have a net operating profit margin of 5.Between 3% and 6% on 2019 and 6.5% in 2020.The reason is that the scale is large and the tax rate is adjusted.This is probably conservative.At the current price of $32 per share, if the stock does not appreciate from here, the PE ratio will drop to 20 in the following 12 months.For a top retailer that is growing far faster than industry standards, I expect a higher multiple.In the case of 30 times more than TTM (12 months behind), the stock price will be $47.70 per share.Prices can be much higher if multiples are a bit overwhelmed, or financial performance is better.The price of the stock is $63, 40 times the price.60.For me, this will be the upper limit of the valuation that I am satisfied.Stocks will never move in a straight line, operating performance may be different from the plan, and the business is full of uncertainty.Having said that, I expect the price to rise from the current $32 per share to $47 to $63 over the next 18 years24 months.The return will be between 49% and 99% of these levels.If there's any small problemStore sales, I will exit the inventory.For me, hiccups are below 5% times without a good explanation.I will also focus on gross margin to make sure they are not under pressure.Stocks traded in these high multiples are only traded there because of high growth.There is a big distance between high-growth stock valuations and the involvement of value investors.When it comes to stocks, you never want to be stuck in this wasteland.Home is my biggest location for my portfolio.When the stock moved around in my 20 s, I had four separate purchases.I sold one recently.My fourth position when the stock crossed 31.I wanted to adjust my portfolio a little as the price went up, and I also used those proceeds to buy flooring and decor.You can read that good article here.I will update my deal in my blog post.Just click on the "follow" button (free) and you will have access to the content in real time.Good luck in the new year, please feel free to add any comments in the section below.Disclosure: I/we are permanent residence, cost, FND, BP, EWJ, MCB.This article was written by myself and expressed my views.I have not received compensation (except for Seeking Alpha ).I have no business relationship with any stock company mentioned in this article.
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